Why the Iran war is ending without an Israeli victory
As Washington sought an exit from a costly conflict, a widening gap between American and Israeli priorities shaped the Iran war's abrupt conclusion.
By Eliezer Sherman
When the U.S. and Israel launched attacks against Iran at the end of February, Israelis saw it coming, but many in the U.S. were flummoxed.
As the war appears to be winding down this week with a “digitally” signed Memorandum of Understanding, the opposite seems true: Americans get it and Israelis are scratching their heads—somewhat aggressively.
When the war began, many Americans asked (knowingly, perhaps) why the U.S. was fighting a war against Iran when we hadn’t been attacked and no new evidence had emerged that Iran was on the cusp of or had already developed nuclear weapons. The attacks were compared to former President George W. Bush’s launching of the war against Iraq in 2003 over WMDs that never existed.
Also, why was the “peace president” starting a new war in the Middle East?
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As punishing air strikes ramped up in Iran without congressional approval, Trump officials offered a slew of rationales that one analyst compared to paintings by Jackson Pollock—a barrage of splatters looking for meaning.
In the end, the message that really stuck with Americans came from Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who said the U.S. had launched attacks because it was aware Israel was on its way to do the same.
In essence, Rubio implied that Israel’s decision-making on Iran had forced its hand.
What followed was the sentiment that the U.S. was fighting a war on behalf of Zionism. Ergo, hundreds of billions of tax dollars would be spent and Americans would be dying on Israel’s behalf.
Regardless of Trump’s stated goals of removing Iran’s ballistic missile threat, destroying its naval capabilities, and neutering its nuclear weapons ambitions once and for all, most people didn’t buy it.
Quickly, oil prices spiked and the suspicions of fighting a war for Israel were compounded by the cynicism of yet another war on behalf of global oil barons and weapons manufacturers who would rake in profits.
The truth is, the West is far less concerned about a nuclear Iran than Israel believes it should be.
Unfortunately for Israel, recent polls indicate that the world may be less concerned about an existential threat to Israel’s status quo than Jerusalem is willing to believe. When Minister Bezalel Shmotrich complains that the Iran deal is bad for the free world, many (most?) are wondering why he believes he is authorized to speak on the free world’s behalf.
Europe was never interested in this conflict. China is quietly waiting for opportunities to unfold once it’s over. Russia was happy to get sanctions relief during the war but didn’t seem to care which way it went. And the rest of the world remains deeply suspicious of Israel following the decimating war in Gaza, its destruction of civilian infrastructure in Lebanon, and settler attacks against Palestinians in the West Bank.
For Americans, U.S. soldiers and innocent civilians dying now in another long and costly Mideast war is more important than what is seen as an ambiguous nuclear threat from Iran. For Americans who despise Trump, supporting any of his policies is seen as riskier than denying Iran nuclear weapons.
The fact that gas prices surged at a time of economic pressure and rising inflation was the straw that broke the camel’s back—resolving the war on the home front was likely going to become a matter of elective politics.
So, for Trump, looming midterm elections and the face of America’s 250th anniversary celebration may have added pressure to his decision to sign off on opening Hormuz now, despite the potential costs of appeasing Iranian tactical leverage. Mounting frustrations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which Trump expressed through a variety of aspersions, in any case indicated the president was determined to wrap things up.
Now, Trump is heading to the G7 Summit to sit with global leaders in high-profile meetings and may well receive a hero’s welcome on the global stage—after all, he ended hostilities, appeared to have brought Iran back to negotiations, and proved willingness to rein in Israel.
For all these reasons, the Iran war is ending the way it is, with a few signatures and enough money to keep the Iranians quiet. For now.
I would like to see your follow up to what's happening now.